The first reason is that we are at war with the Taliban and that involves us and the ISAF [International Security Assistance Force] in an intra-Islamic conflict which has been going on for centuries and has no discernable end. There has hardly been a single century since Islamic armies left Arabia to invade their neighbors that there has not risen a leader who claims that the failures of their endeavors was due to a failure to adhere to the original tenants of the prophet. The Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan are echoes of that history. What we perceive as radical, they see as fundamental to their roots. General McChrystal’s armies have no strategy to sort that out let alone claim they can “win”.
The second reason is that we cannot fight this war in Afghanistan when the enemy is dispersed outside that country in Pakistan’s peripheral mountainous territories. Mullah Omar and his Quetta Shura Taliban [QST] are headquartered in Quetta, a Pakistan city. They are well organized and have established a proxy government known as Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and have agents throughout Afghanistan. The Haqqani network [HQN], according to the latest McChrystal report, operates from Pakistan with Gulf Arab financial backing and works with al Qaeda. The Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin forces have a base in Pakistan and are led by the indomitable old mujahideen chief Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Our current “clear, hold and build” strategy has no meaning in this situation. What do we clear? A field, a city? How do we hold it? Establish a periphery day and night? And what do we build? Here is a poor country that does not have one foot of railroad. It is not a question of missing the 20th century—they missed out from the 12th century.
The third reason is that we have no way of knowing that whatever government gains the upper hand after our departure, that al Qaeda will be a significant force or one that could not be monitored. There is reason to believe that al Qaeda would not be welcome. The Afghans will sort it out. Critics will say we will leave chaos but I am reminded of Gandhi’s reply to Lord Mountbatten when he said India would be in chaos if the British left. Gandhi said, “Yes, but it will be our chaos”.
The fourth reason is that we cannot further afford these wars any more. This nation with current debt load, financial institutions trying to escape insolvency, our states unable to meet basic obligations and on-and-on is on a trajectory for bankruptcy. The idea that we could now be talked into throwing more billions at this conflict when we have just dumped three trillion dollars into an equally useless conflict in Iraq is an idea beyond the imagination.
The last reason is that we have accomplished our purpose in invading Afghanistan. We have denied the enemy safe haven. Let the region have a go at keeping it.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
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